Just two months ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason of the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. As the in-form star swept in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to ten wins in a row , having failed to win any of their first six games, now sit only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. History, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, even as the positive results have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side that have strung together ten consecutive victories, they seem weirdly vulnerable – however right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened when facing United.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had more shots and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival the club have to face in the near future. The forward, surely, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a vital England player.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. As the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
